When Capacity Encounters Crisis: Subnational Governments’ Heterogeneous Response to the “Zero-Covid” Policy in China

Abstract

Nearly three years after the first outbreak, China relaxed its Zero-Covid policy. During the period of strict control, some local officials flexibly achieved both pandemic control and economic recovery with targeted measures, while others insisted on stringent policies with large-scale lockdowns even when the number of infected cases was low. Under the uniform Zero-Covid policy, why did subnational governments facing a similar level of infection adopt different lockdown decisions? This study argues that state capacity is key to understanding heterogeneity in policy choice. Specifically, using a novel dateset covering 281 Chinese cities, this study provides robust evidence for these arguments. Firstly, contrary to expectations, fiscal capacity, typically considered a conventional dimension of state capacity, does not significantly influence lockdown decisions. Similarly, capacity less directly related to achieving the policy goal, such as monitoring capacity, also do not explain the variation. Secondly, medical capacity, closely aligned with the policy goal, explains the variation. Cities with weaker medical capacity, i.e., fewer doctors for achieving pandemic control, are more likely to prefer strict measures with large-scale lockdowns, while high-capacity cities prefer targeted measures with small-scale lockdowns. Thirdly, different dimensions of capacity are not necessarily correlated. Cities with strong fiscal capacity do not necessarily have strong medical capacity. In summary, state capacity is multidimensional and varies across localities, with heterogeneity in policy implementation shaped by capacity contingent on the policy goal, especially in times of crisis.

Yu Xia

Ph.D. student

I am a first-year Ph.D. student in Political Science at University of Rochester. Welcome to reach me at yxia24@ur.rochester.edu